Why I am losing sleep since May 4, 2021
Please find a quiet spot, grab a coffee, and read this till the end.
I am a 40-Year-old man who, along with my wife, migrated from India to this beautiful country back in the good old days of 2012. Both of us found a job, worked hard, had a child, juggled work and child care, argued about the mundane, watched Netflix, saved money, did taxes, and put some money in superannuation.
Come 2017, and I finally became an Australian Citizen. Happy Days.
On my visit to India, someone asked me, "Is Australia Racist?" My answer was, "Some people are racist like anywhere, but there is no institutional racism in Australia.
Fast Forward 2020 and COVID hit the world, and we were all locked up working from home managing school and work.
UK, US, Italy, the most advanced countries, were folding. There were anxieties. We all stocked up on toilet paper and pasta.
Finally, Australia did it. We were the world leaders in keeping COVID at bay. Our hotel Quarantine, Border closures were the envy of the world.
At the same time, My birth country India was also doing fine. The Prime Minister of India patted himself on the back for being the first country to defeat COVID.
Fast forward End April 2021, things are going well in my birth country, and then suddenly, a nuclear chain reaction, COVID cases start rising, "KABOOM." People in India start dying in unprecedented numbers. There are scenes of people queuing for Oxygen cylinders, apocalyptical.
Then on May 4, 2021, Our PM Mr. Morisson announces a complete travel ban from India. I am like, fair enough. We closed state borders in the past. Our country is just trying to keep us safe.
I was holidaying in Bright while my birth country dealt with an apocalypse. I felt guilty to be holidaying whilst my birth country suffers but I was thankful to our leaders for keeping us safe. Then it came to the threat of a "5-year Jail term and a $66,000 fine for Australians who try to return home.
Between June 2017(Citizenship Ceremony) and May 4, 2021(Jail term Announcements), I believed that:
- My Citizenship is sacrosanct.
- It is irrevocable.
- The State cannot stop me from entering Australia.
- There is a social contract between the State and me, whereby I live 1/3rd* of my life working for the State, in return, the State takes care of the hospitals, roads, schools, helps me out if I am in trouble overseas, and does all the mundane things a govt does.
On May 4, 2021, the State broke the promise, and my beliefs were put to the test.
The Australian government told us that under the Biosecurity laws, the Australian govt has the power to put Australians in prison for the act of trying to return home from overseas.
Facebook groups cheered,
"Why were they there anyways?***."
"They are not real Australians."
Interestingly these laws were not invoked when the dreaded UK variant was rampant because it is "Mother England," of course.
Neither were they invoked when people in the US were digging mass graves because they are our mates.
Also, who dare stop real Australians from returning. The govt curtailed the number of arrivals but did its best without threatening dire consequences.
However, for the Not-So-Real Australians from countries where they cannot even manage Oxygen Cylinders, it is a more straightforward case to push around politically.
I couldn't believe it, the threat of Jail terms. Why was it needed? How were we managing our world-class COVID response with no threats of Jail term till now? What was so different this time? Is Mr. Morison wrong now, or was he wrong in the past when he did not threaten our citizens?
The PM soon retracted this in words, not legislation, and Mr. Morisson now said the chances of jail terms meted out are exceedingly low.
However, the damage is done now. I know that for whatsoever reason, my Citizenship is not risk-free. It carries a Sovereign risk.
I know I belong to a group of people who are a bit less equal.
If I were a risk manager at an investment bank and I had bought AAA-rated Govt bonds with an assumption of a risk-free return, and then the issuing Govt legislates it is going to default on them, but in a few days says 'Just Kidding,' would I still rate them AAA or A-?
Hence the sovereign Risk.
If I had $249,000 in a bank and the bank announces it will freeze my assets because of an 'exceptional national security emergency' and the next day the bank says 'Just Kidding' would I consider the bank as a safe place to keep my money?
Hence the sovereign Risk.
Trust is fragile. It takes decades to build and is lost in seconds.
This 5 Year Jail term saga happened when Australia was doing well, and we had hotel Quarantine. The Economy was ok, and the Virus was a Known Known.
I am pretty sure the Govt will soon come to its senses and start repatriating Citizens.
What troubles me is what lies in the future.
What will happen when there is another SHTF unknown-unknown event again?
Given that once in a 100-year Tail Risk** events are happening every ten years. Bureaucrats in Canberra are already talking about 'Drums of War.' what more Sovereign risks am I looking at in the future?
Internment Camps?
Asset Confiscation?
Sorry, your Super is Gone?
I can see a smirk on your face. This guy has gone crazy, you are saying. Believe me, when I was screaming Happy New Year 2020, if anyone said I would be living the next two years on a repeat of the movie Contagion, I would have laughed louder than you are laughing now.
Yes, they all are tail risk events, but one thing 2020 has taught me is that tail risk events are just not for risk management textbooks. They do happen rarely, and when they do, you are F*****.
End Note :
Honestly, everyone would have stayed calm if the PM would have just said, "It's apocalyptical out there. We are pausing repatriation. We Will do our best, won't leave anyone behind." and kept the threats out.
Foot Notes:
Sovereign Risk: or country risk, is the risk that a government could default on its debt (sovereign debt) or other obligations. It is generally associated with underdeveloped countries.
*Roughly each of us is paying 1/3rd of our income to the govt as taxes. In effect, we are working for the Govt 1/3rd of our lives )
**Tail Risk:
Tail risk is the possibility that an unlikely event will occur and cause a huge loss.
*** Why were they there:
Those of you who are not aware Australia has an Exit visa kind of system where people can travel overseas only in dire emergencies like the death of a parent or an orphaned nephew, or a niece. Sometimes even the death of a single parent is not considered dier enough.
The reason people had been visiting India was the same as visiting any other country, exceptional family crisis, just that in India, the situation was quite good when they left. It changed suddenly, and people were trapped.
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